Confronting the complexity of the physician workforce equation.

THE UNITED STATES IS A NATION IN WHICH 47 MILlion citizens have no health insurance, more than 16% of the country’s gross domestic product is spent on rapidly increasing health costs, and stark disparities exist in health care access, exemplified by 20% of the population currently residing in federally designated health professional shortage areas. These formidable challenges have led to renewed interest in reforming the health care system while engendering intense debate among policy makers and politicians. One area of increasing focus has been the current and future size of the US physician workforce. If the health care system’s purpose is to provide quality care and appropriate access to care, a critical factor is to have an adequate supply of well-educated providers. Although physicians are not the only professionals providing health services, they are a key component of the overall health care workforce. Therefore, determining the number of physicians necessary to meet current and future US needs has become a critical question. The debate regarding this question, however, is at risk of becoming overly simplistic and polarized.